El Niño could delay Indonesia's rice harvest, raising Eid supply risk

 The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) has urged the Indonesian government to strengthen rice reserves amid concerns that El Niño could delay the 2027 harvest and threaten supplies ahead of Eid al-Fitr.

Speaking in Jakarta on Thursday, Afaqa Hudaya, a researcher at Indef's Center for Food, Energy, and Sustainable Development, said the government's current rice stocks of around 4.5 million metric tons should be sufficient to meet demand through the Christmas and New Year holidays.

However, he emphasized that the government must prepare for higher demand in the first quarter of 2027, particularly in the lead-up to Eid al-Fitr.

He explained that El Niño could delay the planting season until December 2026 or January 2027. Consequently, the peak harvest, which typically occurs in March, could be postponed until April or May.

"Is a stock of around 4.5 million tons sufficient? On paper, it is certainly enough for Christmas and New Year. What requires particular attention is demand during Eid in March next year," he said.

Hudaya estimated that government rice reserves could decline to between 3 million and 3.5 million metric tons by early 2027, following food assistance distributions and market operations through the end of this year.

To ensure adequate supplies, he said the government should prepare a rice balance sheet for January-April 2027, taking into account planted areas and weather forecasts while establishing a minimum safe reserve level.

According to Hudaya, if projections indicate that rice stocks could fall below this threshold, the government should decide on additional supply measures by December 2026 or January 2027 at the latest.

Furthermore, he urged the government to intensify market operations ahead of Christmas and New Year, as well as two to three weeks before Ramadan, particularly in areas experiencing high rice prices.

He also called on the Indonesian government to prioritize distributing older rice stocks to maintain stock quality and ensure that various food assistance provided to the public remains suitable for consumption.

Regarding other food commodities, Hudaya urged the government to strengthen interregional cooperation to secure chili and shallot supplies, while developing cold storage facilities to anticipate increased demand ahead of Eid al-Fitr.