Lionel Messi in Miami – a football failure but a money-spinning triumph

 There will be a time, said Lionel Messi’s friend and former Argentina team-mate Sergio Agüero, when football (soccer) in the United States will be divided into two periods: Before Messi and After Messi.

That may well be true. The bigger question, though, is what effect will Messi have had on that shift? After all, with the forward, 38 this month, kicking off Fifa’s bloated and so far unloved Club World Cup in the cloying heat of Miami at a far from sold-out Hard Rock Stadium at 1am on Sunday (UK time), it could be the start of the countdown to his time in the US drawing to a close.

Messi is out of contract at Inter Miami at the end of this year, having signed with a fanfare as a free agent in July 2023 from Paris St-Germain in one of the most extraordinary deals ever constructed in sport.

The expectation remains that he will re-sign, although there have been murmurings that he has grown increasingly frustrated of late with the club’s struggles and has shown flashes of anger towards referees. That is despite Miami bringing in those who played alongside him at Barcelona in Luis Suárez, Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba and head coach Javier Mascherano.

There is a fear that should Miami bomb at the Club World Cup – a competition he has already won three times, albeit in a vastly different format – it may make up his mind to quit. But this has strongly been played down by the club, whose managing owner, Jorge Mas, says that contract negotiations are ongoing and that he wants Messi to “finish his career here”. They hope to make an announcement within weeks.

Anything but a contract extension would be damaging for Miami, who are desperate for Messi to lead them into their new stadium at the $1billion (£850 million) Freedom Park next year, and for US soccer.

It is no coincidence that he was wooed to the US at a time when in consecutive years they were hosting the Copa America – which Messi won with Argentina – this summer’s Club World Cup and then the 2026 World Cup, where 75 per cent of the fixtures will be played in the country and where it is hoped he will have his international swansong.

This is about finance and geopolitical influence. And, thankfully, also football.

A standout player in a very average league

In a sense, the Club World Cup is a test run for the bigger prize: that World Cup. The first US World Cup in 1994 launched Major League Soccer two years later. The hope is that hosting it again will power MLS, which has undeniably stalled, to a new level. And to do that they need the Messi effect.

One of the challenges MLS faces is that Americans want to watch the best, and MLS is simply not the best league in the world. But by association with Messi, it does become more important, and he remains by far the biggest name and is marketed as the face of football.

For example, the UK-based sports intelligence firm Twenty First Group ranks MLS alongside the Ukrainian Premier League – 19th in the world – for having top players (just eight spread across six teams and Messi the stand-out). To put that in perspective, the Premier League has 258 of the top 1,250 players; La Liga is second with 185.

MLS knows it must change if it is to achieve its global aim and there are claims that Messi being there has already started the conversations – about switching the season to be in line with Fifa’s calendar, about allowing more spending. Even, maybe, about introducing relegation and promotion, although that still seems anathema to US owners. The big question remains: what will the difference be when Messi leaves MLS?

There is a parallel with David Beckham, who is co-owner of Miami and played an integral role in wooing Messi. When Beckham signed for LA Galaxy in 2007 – when he was still just 32 – it took MLS to one level. Messi’s mission is to take it to the next one. But will his time be as seismic as Beckham’s?

Eye-watering money, for life

The Messi effect can also be divided into two areas: money and on-field success. Messi’s signing was always likely to be a commercial success and the spoils have quickly piled up.

But the danger remains that Messi will become nothing more than a commercial blip. Even if that blip has been astonishing.

When Messi signed, his income per year was estimated at $60 million. But that does not tell half the story. It is made up of salary, signing-on bonus, but also a potentially lucrative deal to eventually award him equity in the team.

Only Beckham was granted something similar – even if MLS paid a high price by allowing him to buy Miami’s place in the league for just $25million, with the club now valued at $1 billion (£737 million). Not that he owns all of it.

Messi’s contract has similar benefits. With a trigger to own a percentage of Miami after he retires, Messi will be an MLS stakeholder, which the Americans hope will tie him into their league for the long term.

On top of that, he has separate deals with Adidas, Fanatics and Apple. The latter, in particular, is significant. Messi signed in the first season when all MLS games were shown by Apple, behind a paywall, in a 10-year, $2.5 billion media rights deal with his own remuneration linked to new subscriptions. In terms of a league broadcast partner putting a player into the profits, we have never seen anything like that before.

There was also talk that a prime motivator for the company was the South American market, where it was not dominant and Android still had a far larger footprint.

What is intriguing is whether it has actually worked. Apple boasted of a huge increase in subscriber numbers – not that they were published – but more recently there has been speculation that the company might take advantage of a rumoured break clause after year five of the contract.

What is not in dispute is that an early Apple TV+ docuseries Messi Meets America was a flop and was panned by critics.

In terms of social media it has been trumpeted that before Messi arrived Miami had fewer than one million Instagram followers. Now they have 17 million – although Messi himself has 505 million.

Messi has also drawn record crowds. This season, 72,610 watched Miami away to Kansas City and 65,612 at Foxborough. The Houston Dynamos even issued an apology to their angry fans for Messi not playing in their fixture, after they jacked up prices, offering them free tickets in return.

Don Garber, the MLS commissioner, has claimed that Messi’s pink Miami shirt is Adidas’ top-seller – not just in football but for any of the company’s shirts. MLS insists that Messi has helped put the league “in front of a global audience” and “piqued the interest of sports fans in our country”.